Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa prediction, time, odds: UFC 302

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in depth to interrupt down the largest fights within the UFC. Right this moment, he takes a better have a look at the UFC 302 co-main occasion between former middleweight champion Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa.

Sean Strickland UFC 302 preview

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – SEPTEMBER 08: Sean Strickland of United States poses through the ceremonial weigh in for UFC 293 at Qudos Financial institution Enviornment on September 08, 2023 in Sydney, Australia. (Photograph by Mark Evans/Getty Photos)

Staple information:

• Top: 6’1″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs. Attain: 76″
• Final battle: Choice loss to Dricus Du Plessis (Jan. 20, 2024)
• Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas, NV)
• Stance/hanging model: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Danger administration: Good

Supplemental information:
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ King of the Cage middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 11 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ 22-3 within the middleweight division
+ Constant tempo and stress
+ Lengthy and correct jab
^ Coming ahead or off the backfoot
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes properly off the breaks
+ Underrated wrestling capability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Good transitional grappler
^ From high or backside

Paulo Costa UFC 302 preview

Paulo Costa UFC 298 ceremonial weigh-ins

Staple information:

• Top: 6’1″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs. Attain: 72″
• Final battle: Choice loss to Robert Whittaker (February 17, 2024)
• Camp: Crew Borrachinha (Brazil)
• Stance/hanging model: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Danger administration: Honest

Supplemental information:
+ “TUF: Brazil 3” alum
+ Jungle Struggle middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ A number of grappling accolades
+ 11 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO energy
+ Imposing stress
^ Feints, stalks, corrals
+ Correct shot choice
^ Variates rhythm, appears to be like and ranges
+ Robust inside the clinch
^ Reveals wrestling fundamentals
+ Works properly from topside
^ Rides, transitions, strikes

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa focal point: Middleweight mashup

Sep 9, 2023; Sydney, NSW, AUSTRALIA; Israel Adesanya (pink gloves) fights Sean Strickland (blue gloves) throughout UFC 293 at Qudos Financial institution Enviornment. Obligatory Credit score: Jasmin Frank-USA TODAY Sports activities

The co-main occasion for UFC 302 contains a pairing of middleweights who aren’t afraid to get messy on their toes.

Combating to his body, Stickland does an honest job of staying lengthy with the occasional entrance teep and a sequence of stinging jabs. Whether or not he’s circling along with his jab off the counter or connecting it to crosses down the middle line, the jab is a shot that Strickland has had a pleasant really feel for since coming into the group.

When feeling in stride, Strickland isn’t afraid to shift stances mid-combination to higher goal fleeing foes. Reverse opponents like Krzysztof Jotko, Strickland was capable of make the most of stated shifts to gas a gradual dose of low kicks that have been fairly efficient.

Nonetheless, regardless of being a fighter who can do his share of countering, Strickland himself isn’t past being countered on account of his upright posture and a propensity to generally transfer and observe in straight traces.

Nonetheless, since teaming up with Xtreme Couture’s Eric Nicksick, Strickland has executed a a lot better job of controlling the cage, which, in flip, helped him flip in one of many largest upsets of 2023 when he took the title from Israel Adesanya.

However, Strickland will nonetheless must respect what Paulo Costa is throwing again at him.

An imposing competitor by nature, Costa historically likes to stress his prey towards the fence.

Whether or not Costa is baiting opponents with feints into crushing hooks and physique kicks, or crashing the gap to intercept his opposition with a devastating cross, the Brazilian appears to be genuinely snug inside exchanges.

Even when caught clear, Costa will no-sell his opponent’s pictures as he returns hearth proper again of their face, however with an adjusted and diverse rhythm. For me, it’s a powerful feat to see a younger fighter who in any other case looks as if a bully utilizing delicate ways like rhythm and stage modifications to keep away from predictability with strikes.

Costa’s shot choice can also be helpful on the subject of corralling his opposition in between the cage and inner-black octagon traces – a spot the place his energy involves life. That stated, Costa did show some stable jabbing ways in his final outing reverse Robert Whittaker, in addition to a deceptively correct spin kick that might give Strickland flashbacks to his loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos down at welterweight.

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Aug 20, 2022; Salt Lake Metropolis, Utah, USA; Paulo Costa (pink gloves) fights Luke Rockhold (blue gloves) throughout UFC 278 at Vivint Enviornment. Obligatory Credit score: Jeffrey Swinger-USA TODAY Sports activities

Contemplating that “Borrachinha” initially got here from a base in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, I will probably be curious to see if he appears to be like to shock the previous champion by revisiting his roots.

Throughout his temporary stint on “The Final Fighter: Brazil 3,” we noticed a really inexperienced model of Costa utilizing cage stress and takedowns to seal the deal on fighters earlier than working out of gasoline and dropping a split-decision (exhibition bout) to Marcio Alexandre on the present. Though the newest iteration of Costa has moved closely towards the hanging realm, I’ve to think about that the Mineiro champion of jiu-jitsu’s floor sport remains to be firmly intact.

When competing beneath the Jungle Struggle banner, Costa demonstrated a capability to transition and journey whereas hanging, showing to keep up a superb sense of positional IQ and consciousness. But when the Brazilian does intend on taking Strickland down, then Costa might want to come right along with his setups and executions.

Positive, former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman was capable of largely dominate Strickland to a choice win; however apart from that, Strickland has made a stable account for himself throughout the wrestling realm since stepping onto the UFC scene.

Offensively, Strickland nonetheless reveals the power to hit level-changing doubles when he must, in addition to useful shuck-by’s from the physique lock place that permits him to get an angle on his opponent’s again (that are all good indicators contemplating the injury Strickland sustained in a bike accident a couple of years again).

Though we haven’t needed to see a lot shot protection from Strickland since his return to the middleweight division, the 33-year-old American at all times has executed an honest job of both separating his opposition’s grips or sprawling and shutting down their takedown makes an attempt outright.

Strickland additionally seems pretty versatile in scrambles, exhibiting a stable sense of hip consciousness and leg dexterity as well.

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa odds

The oddsmakers and the general public are favoring the American fighter, itemizing Stickland -265 and Costa +200 by way of FanDuel.

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa prediction, choose

Regardless of this line beginning to get a bit extensive for my liking, I don’t disagree with Strickland being favored from a betting perspective.

The outspoken American is undeniably a wildcard outdoors of the octagon, however inside Strickland is without doubt one of the extra constant fighters that this division has to supply. Whereas Costa, who’s a personality in and out of the cage, could be a lot tougher to foretell.

Stylistically, the fighter who’s shifting ahead ought to have an inherent benefit in exchanges.

Each males aren’t shy about coming ahead, however I’d argue that Strickland is the extra versatile fighter with reference to working off the backfoot when he must. Add in the truth that straight pictures from both stance appear to be Costa’s frequent perpetrator, and I can’t assist however facet with Strickland on this spot.

Except Costa can emphatically carry to gentle Strickland’s left-sided strike susceptibilities with a hook or a spin kick, then I think that the previous champion can draw back from his Brazilian foe down the stretch for a aggressive win on the scorecards.

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa begin time, the place to observe

Strickland and Costa are anticipated to make their walks to the octagon at roughly 11:45 p.m. ET. The battle streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

For extra on the cardboard, go to MMA Junkie’s occasion hub for UFC 302.